HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity Council Packet 01-07-1991 Specialsfu y Sessi•
CITY OF PLYMOUTH
3400 PLYMOUTH BOULEVARD, PLYMOUTH, MINNESOTA 55447
DATE: January 3, 1991
TO: Mayor & City Council
FROM: Frank Boyles, Assistant City Manag(er'\
SUBJECT: JANUARY 7 STUDY SESSION TO DISCUSS DEVELOPMENT IMPACT
STUDY ASSUMPTIONS
The firm of Springsted has been selected to prepare the
development impact study directed by the City Council. The City
staff has met with Springsted representatives on three occasions
to provide them with information needed to prepare their study
assumptions. On December 2, a final meeting took place for the
purpose of reviewing all study assumptions and to provide
PubliCorp representative Mark Ruff the opportunity to receive
background materials on the study, as well as review the draft
assumptions with Springsted and City staff members.
Attached is a report from Springsted which sets forth the draft
report objectives and assumptions. As part of those assumptions,
a September 1990 update of the Tischler & Associates study is
included. This study document will be used by Springsted to
establish city service cost assumptions for the study. A copy of
the updated report is attached.
Springsted representatives will be present at the study session
to review each of the draft objectives and assumptions set forth
in the report. The Council should determine whether revisions or
additions are appropriate before they become the final basis for
the report.
PubliCorp representatives have been invited to the study session
and have been asked to invite development interests as well.
A light dinner will be provided.
FB:kec
attach
500 Elm Grove Road
Suite 101, P.O. Box 37
Elm Grove, WI 53122-0037
414) 782-8222
Fax: (414) 782-2904
2739 Second Avenue S.E.
Cedar Rapids, IA 52403-1434
319) 363-2221
Fax: (319) 363-6999
January 3, 1991
Mr. James Willis, Manager
Plymouth City Hall
3400 Plymouth Boulevard
Plymouth, MN 55447
Re: Development Impact Analysis
Dear Mr. Willis:
SPRINGSTED
PUBLIC FINANCE ADVISORS
85 East Seventh Place
Suite 100
Saint Paul, MN 55101.2143
612) 223.3000
Fax: (612) 223.3002
512 Nicollet Mall
Suite 550
Minneapolis, MN 55402-1017
612) 333.9177
Fax: (612) 333-2363
135 North Pennsylvania Street
Suite 2015
Indianapolis, IN 46204-2498
317) 684-6000
Fax: (317) 684-6004
6800 College Boulevard
Suite 600
Overland Park, KS 66211
913) 345-8062
Fax: (913) 345-1770
To begin this analysis we would like a discussion with subsequent agreement on the principal
objectives and assumptions. First, we want to ensure that the study answers the City's specific
question(s). Second, as this analysis estimates conditions over an anticipated ten-year term,
numerous major assumptions of future events must be made. If the City is not comfortable with
these assumptions, then the results of the study will have diminished credibility. By agreeing
on the objectives and major assumptions, the process is more cost-effective and the results
more useful to the City.
OBJECTIVES
The study will focus on the property tax impact to an existing Plymouth homeowner living in the
Wayzata and Robbinsdale School Districts. The City Assessor estimates the average market
value of a typical Plymouth residence at $144,600 in 1990. This study will calculate the
property's tax bill before and after development occurs in the study areas.
To determine this representative tax bill, we have developed the following objectives:
The primary objective is to determine the financial impact on residents of Plymouth of
constructing the Northwest and North Central sewer trunk facilities with specific focus on the
property tax impact.
The four subcategories are:
1) to determine the capital construction financial impact on the City from installing these
trunk facilities;
2) to determine the operational financial impact on the City from associated development
of the areas;
City of Plymouth, Minnesota
January 3, 1991
Page 2
3) to determine the capital construction financial impact on the school district(s) from
associated development of these areas; and
4) to determine the operational financial impact on the school district(s) from associated
development of these areas.
A principal determinant of property taxing levels will be the City's levy limitation. Current State
law stipulates that levy limits for cities will be removed for taxes payable in 1993. There is a
probability that this elimination of levy limits will be changed. Therefore, this study will examine
the situation both with and without levy limits.
Lastly, the developer's representative, Publicorp, has requested an examination of the "do
nothing" scenario. This scenario assumes that major expenditures have already been made
which will have an adverse impact if no development occurs. If desired by the City, we will
include this scenario in our study.
STUDY AREA
The City staff has defined the subject areas for future development. The attached map
indicates these areas.
ASSUMPTIONS
Jointly with the City staff, we have determined a listing of major assumptions. We have
grouped these assumptions into categories to address specific study areas. This listing may
not be all-inclusive and we welcome both comments on these assumptions as well as other
assumptions not listed here.
Overall Assumptions
1. Term of Study
We assume the term of the study will be from 1991 through 2000.
2. Property Tax System
We assume the current property tax system will remain in effect over the term of this
study.
3. Funding of Cities
We assume the current system of funding cities will remain unchanged, i.e., the relative
shares of operational revenues will remain unchanged, fiscal disparities will continue,
etc. The one exception is the State funding of Homestead and Agricultural Assistance
HACA). We will perform a sensitivity analysis for possible changes in HACA levels.
City of Plymouth, Minnesota
January 3, 1991
Page 3
4. City Tax Base Growth
We believe the City's present tax base will not grow at historical levels. We assume the
growth in the present tax base will be determined upon consultation with the City
Assessor, and will be at a level below recent experience. Also, the estimated future tax
base will be amended to allow for termination of existing tax increment districts.
Development Assumptions
1. Residential Development
Residential densities reflect base -line units per acre according to current Plymouth
guidelines. Since a negligible amount of multi -family residential is allowed in the North
Central trunk area, the focus on the residential usage will be on single-family
construction.
2. Household Size
The average household size of 2.72 is assumed, based on the Metropolitan Council's
most current estimates. The 1990 census household size estimates are not yet
available.
3. Commercial Development
Office/commercial and industrial square footage projections are based on the
Metropolitan Council's assumptions regarding net square foot of developable area per
acre.
4. Developable Land Areas
The size of the undeveloped land areas are based on measurements made by the City
of Plymouth and reflect updates of the Barton Ashman Report. The land area is net of
undevelopable areas such as wetlands, easements, etc.
5. Building Permit Data
Past development activities reflected by building permit reports provided by the City for
the years 1982-1990. The permit activity includes new residential building
permits/single-family detached and attached; remodeling building permits/residential;
new residential building permits/multi-family four units and over; new permits/non-
residential; and building permits for alterations/non-residential.
6. Values for New Development
New residential and commercial values are based upon recent permit values and
information from the Plymouth tax assessor.
City of Plymouth, Minnesota
January 3, 1991
Page 4
City Assumptions
Infrastructure Construction
1. Construction Cost
This study will include all City public improvements in the subject development areas.
We assume the City Public Works Director will establish a project expenditure and
revenue budget for each improvement expressed in future dollars. This project budget
will include existing improvements which were constructed with a capacity to serve
subject development areas.
2. Construction Funding
We assume the City Public Works Director's project revenue budget will incorporate
current City policies on the funding of improvements.
3. Special Assessments
We assume that either no delinquencies will occur in the payment of special
assessments or, if delinquencies occur, they are covered fully by developer liquidity
guarantees or other City funds. We assume in no event will property taxes be levied to
meet delinquencies.
4. Utility Fund Improvements
Certain improvements relate to the subject development areas which are funded from
utility user fees. From discussion with City staff, we assume no rate increase exists or
will exist which relates directly to the subject development areas.
Operation Funding
1. Operational Expenditures
The City has recently received the final report by Tischler & Associates which forecasts
the City's operational fiscal position for the term 1991-2000. The City staff, upon review
of this document, is in agreement with the report's conclusions. We assume this study
will use the Tischler report's conclusions on operational cost estimates with the
following discussion:
a.) Per Capita Cost
Additional cost to the City's general fund due to growth are based on per capita
cost estimates prepared including the City's 1990 budget. The general fund
costs are estimated by the following six major cost categories: administration,
City of Plymouth, Minnesota
January 3, 1991
Page 5
community development, parks and recreation, finance, public safety, and public
works.
b). Service Levels
it was assumed in the per capita cost estimates that these estimates will result in
the continuation of the 1990 service levels.
c). Adjustments
There are minor adjustments to the Tischler cost estimates which may be made
based on concurrence of the City staff. One area of adjustment may be the
method of allocating operating expense for a new public safety building.
2. Operational Revenues
The assumption on funding of cities listed in the "Overall Assumptions" category will
apply to Plymouth's future operational funding. We assume the General Fund Revenue
shares used in the 1991 City budget will continue over the term of the study.
School District Assumptions
1. Need For New Building(s)
Independent School District 284 has its own demographer to forecast student
populations and building needs. Based on our projections of development absorption
rates, we assume that the demographer would apply current student ratios to determine
the need for new buildings.
2. If New Buildings, Construction Cost Estimates
Independent School District 284 has recently completed the construction of three new
elementary buildings, and they have an ongoing relationship with the EOS architecture
firm. We assume the architect would be able to provide a construction cost estimate for
any new building(s) needed as a result of assumption 1. We also assume that the
construction costs will be stated in future dollars.
3. Increased Operational Costs
Independent School District 284 maintains an operations cost accounting system on a
per building basis. We assume that based on the composition of a new building(s) we
would apply their cost experience for comparable buildings to any new building(s).
City of Plymouth, Minnesota
January 3, 1991
Page 6
4. Operational Revenues
We assume the current system of State funding of school districts would continue over
the term of this study. We also assume the present revenue structure would remain
unchanged over the term of the study.
5. Cost Allocation
We assume that any new buildings may serve an area greater than the subject
development area. If this assumption is correct, then for capital construction and
operational costs, the pro rata share of capital construction and operational costs
allocable to the subject development area will be based on market valuations.
6. School District Tax Base
We assume for determining property tax rates, the School District's tax base will
increase at 50% of the historical five-year rate (1985-1989) over the term of this study.
7. Robbinsdale School District (281)
Upon verification with District 281 staff, we will assume the subject development will
require no new buildings to be constructed by District 281. There may be increases in
operational costs which will be incorporated into this study.
We will be present at the Council's January 7, 1991 meeting to present and discuss the
objectives and assumptions. Please contact us if we can be of any further assistance.
Respectfully submitted,
C-71 J
David N. MacGillivray
Vice President
mmr
cc: Mr. Sid Inman, Publicorp
Enclosure
FISCAL IMPACTS OF GROWTH ON PLYMOUTH, 1991-2000
In September 1990 Tischler & Associates, Inc. (TA) met with department
heads and other staff to update our fiscal analysis for the City of Plymouth. This
analysis of the fiscal impacts of growth is based on the 1984 document entitled,
Service Level, Cost and Revenue Assumptions." Those assumptions have been
updated to reflect 1990 budget figures and also the findings from the departmental
interviews. The changes have been noted in the original assumptions document. The
changed assumptions were also entered into TA's MUNIES software to calculate the
fiscal impacts of growth discussed below.
The structure of this report is as follows. First, the population, employment
and land use projections on which the analysis was based are discussed. Then the
annual and cumulative fiscal results are presented. Finally, the major General Fund
costs and revenues which are included in this analysis are discussed.
I. Projected Increases, 1991-2000
As shown in Table 1 below, this analysis used projections provided by the
Planning Department for the City of Plymouth. Although the population increase is
greater than that developed by the Met Council, it is in line with the actual levels of
growth the City has experienced in recent years. These projections were used, along
with the updated service level, cost and revenue assumptions, to calculate the fiscal
results discussed in the next section. Appendix 1 at the end of the report shows the
projections as they appear in the MUNIES software.
Tischler 8 Associates, Inc.
2
Pctz.
Incr.
31.6
36.2
35.4
40.7
12.9
45.4
94.9
18.2
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
Table 1
Projected Increases
City of Plymouth
1991-2000
Cumulative Estimated
Increase 1990 Base
Population 16,260 51,390
Employment 10,500 29,000
Dwelling Units:
Single Family 4,130 11,662
Plexes 1,200 2,947
Multi Family 650 5,028
Nonresidential Square Feet (000s):
Office 1,225 2,700
Retail 664 700
Industrial 3,052 16,800
2
Pctz.
Incr.
31.6
36.2
35.4
40.7
12.9
45.4
94.9
18.2
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
II. Fiscal Results
Table 2 below shows the fiscal impacts of growth on Plymouth's General Fund
between 1991 and 2000. These impacts are shown on both annual and cumulative
bases. On an annual basis costs are greater than revenues beginning in year 3, or
1993. On a cumulative basis growth generates a deficit to the General Fund
beginning in year 6 or 1996.
Given these fiscal shortfalls, the City can choose not to expand services and
facilities to the extent reflected here, or it can attempt to develop other sources of
revenue.
These results reflect the impact of further restrictions on property tax levies
since TA's 1984 analysis. On the other hand, these results are more positive than
recent Finance Department projections for the same 10 year period. There are
several reasons for differences between these results and the Finance projections, as
follows.
In this analysis, costs and revenues are expressed in 1990 dollars. In the
Finance projections inflation rates ranging from 5% to 7% were applied to all costs
and some revenues.
Another major difference is that the Finance projections assume a population
increase of 11,354 over the next 10 years. TA's analysis, based on Planning
Department projections, includes a population increase of 16,260 between 1991 and
2000.
Finally, the Finance Department projections calculate property taxes based on
the 1991 General Fund levy only. The TA analysis calculated property taxes based
on the Total General Purpose and City Special Assessments levies. This is discussed
further under the section on General Fund Revenues below.
3
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
Table 2
Fiscal Impacts of Growth
Plymouth General Fund
In Millions of 1990 Dollars
Year Annual Results Cumulative Results
1 0.76 0.76
2 0.31 1.07
3 0.02) 1.05
4 0.18) 0.87
5 0.39) 0.48
6 0.60) 0.12)
7 0.75) 0.87)
8 0.93) 1.80)
9 1.08) 2.88)
10 1.24) 4.12)
4
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
III. General Fund Costs
Table 3 below summarizes the General Fund costs due to growth in Plymouth,
under six major categories. As with the 1984 Service Level, Cost and Revenue
Assumptions on which these 1990 calculations are based, activities are in roughly the
same order as they appear in the City Operating Budget. Each of the six major cost
categories shown in Table 3 is discussed in turn below. Appendix 2 at the end of this
report shows the annual and cumulative results for these categories, as calculated by
the MUNIES software.
A. Administration
This category includes the following functions: City Council, City Manager,
Communications, Elections, and Legal Services. These expenses increase between
years 1 and 2 due to population growth and two other factors: the purchase of three
voting machines and the addition of a secretary to assist professionals in Communica-
tions and Personnel.
Administration costs due to growth are $1.4 million cumulatively, or 7.8% of
total costs over the 10 year projection period. Of this total, $0.5 million is for staff
for the City Manager's office; $0.4 million is for contractual Legal Services; and $0.2
million is for the secretary for Communications and Personnel.
B. Community Development
This category includes Planning and Building Inspection. Over the 10 year
projection period, these costs total almost $1.9 million, or 10.6% of total costs. Of
these cumulative costs, almost $1.2 million is for Building Inspection; $0.4 million is
for Planning staff; and $0.2 million is for Planning consulting.
5
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
C. Parks and Recreation
Expenses in this category show significant increases in certain years between
1991 and 2000. This is due to the projected addition of park acreage which the City
will maintain. For example, in 1993, 24 acres of community playfields at Parkers
Lake and 28 acres at Bass Lake are added to the City's inventory. This results in an
increase in park maintenance costs of $176,800, beginning in year 3.
Similarly, developed acreage to be maintained at Plymouth Creek Park
increases by 10 acres in 1992 and 10 acres in 1997. West Medicine Lake Park shows
20 additional acres to be maintained beginning in 1995. Maintenance of these City
Parks is $1,995 per acre in 1990 dollars.
Parks and Recreation costs also include Trail maintenance. The City is
projected to add two miles of trail to its inventory in each of the 10 years in this
analysis. Trail maintenance is estimated at $800 per mile in 1990 dollars.
This category includes two other expenses: the addition of a half-time
secretary beginning in 1992, and Shade Tree Disease Control, which is projected to
increase with population.
Parks and Recreation costs are $2.3 million cumulatively over the 10 year
period, or 12.8% of total costs.
ON
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
Table 3
Cumulative Costs to General Fund
Due to Growth, 1991-2000
In Millions of 1990 Dollars
Category Amount % of Total
Administration $ 1.4 7.8
Community Development 1.9 10.6
Parks and Recreation 2.3 12.8
Finance 1.7 9.5
Public Safety 7.3 40.8
Public Works 3.3 18.4
TOTAL 17.9 99.9
7
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
D. Finance
This category includes Finance, Assessing and Community Services. It is $1.7
million cumulatively over the 10 year projection period, or 9.5% of total costs. Of
this amount, Finance Department staff total $0.7 million; Appraisal staff totals $0.3
million; and Community Services totals $0.5 million.
E. Public Safety
This category includes Police, Fire Protection and Fire Prevention. It is $7.3
million cumulatively over the 10 year projection period, or 40.8% of total costs.
Expenses in this category increase by $193,800 in 1992 with the expected opening of
the new Public Safety Facility.
Of cumulative Public Safety costs of $7.3 million, Police expenses are $6.0
million, including the following: operating costs for the new facility are $1.7 million;
Patrol Officers are $2.6 million (10 new officers are needed by the year 2000);
Investigators are $0.7 million; Community Service Officers are $0.3 million; an
Administrative Assistant's salary is $0.3 million; Clerical Support is $0.2 million; and
Prisoner Expenses are $0.2 million. It should be noted that the latter cost may
increase due to the need for police overtime for Omnibus Evidentiary Hearings.
Cumulative Fire Protection costs are $1.1 million over the 10 year projection
period. Of this total, $0.5 million is for maintenance and repair of fire equipment,
and $0.4 million is for salaries for volunteer firefighters.
Cumulative Fire Prevention costs of $0.2 million make up the rest of the
Public Safety category.
F. Public Works
This category includes Engineering, Street Maintenance, Street Lights and
Traffic Lights. It is $3.3 million cumulatively over the 10 year projection period, or
18.4% of total costs. Of this total, Engineering staff are $0.9 million; Street
Maintenance is $2.1 million; Street Light operations are $0.1 million; and Traffic
Light operations are $0.08 million.
IV. General Fund Revenues
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
Cumulative General Fund revenues due to growth total $13.8 million. Of this
total, the two main sources are Property Taxes, $5.2 million or 37.4%, and Building
Permits, $4.6 million or 33.1%. It should be noted that Property Taxes are
constrained by Minnesota's levy limitation law. For this analysis Property Taxes were
calculated as described below.
The following 1991 Projected bevies were used as the basis for the calculation:
Total General Purpose, $9.3 million, and City Special Assessments, $0.3 million, for
a base of $9.6 million. The increased levy was calculated by multiplying this base by
a 3% inflation rate and by half the rate of annual population increase. For this
analysis population, employment and land use projections were provided by the City's
Planning Department. These projections are higher than those the Met Council has
developed for Plymouth, but are more in line with the City's actual experience.
Once the inflation and population factors were applied to the base levy, the
previous year's levy was deducted. The difference was entered in the analysis, as the
annual increase in Property Taxes.
Table 4 below shows the other major categories of General Fund revenues
which were included in the analysis. The final category, Other Revenues, includes the
following: Other Charges for Services (not including Engineering and Police); Alarm
Permits; MSA Maintenance; Police Service Charges; and Miscellaneous Revenues.
2
Tischer & Associates, Inc.
10
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
Table 4
Cumulative Revenues to General Fund
Due to Growth, 1991-2000
In Millions of 1990 Dollars
Category Amount of Total
Property Taxes 5.2 37.4
License Fees 0.1 0.7
Building Permits 4.6 33.1
Plumbing Permits 0.6 4.3
HVAC Permits 0.3 2.2
Platting Fees 0.2 1.4
Fines & Forfeitures 0.8 5.8
Interest on Investments 0.4 2.9
Engineering Service Charges 1.1 7.9
Police State Aid 0.2 1.4
Other Revenues 0.4 2.9
TOTAL 13.9 100.0
10
Tischler & Associates, Inc.
Appendix 1
Growth Projections
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